2018 Stock Market Forecast

If there is one day that you pay attention to this week, make it Wednesday. In terms of macroeconomic news, the upcoming week will be chock full of important events — the most important of which includes the first reading of Q2 GDP, followed by the July jobs report.

On Wednesday, look for a variety of newsworthy events, beginning with ADP’s July Employment numbers at 8:15am, followed by Q2 GDP (advance) at 8:30am and the Fed’s FOMC meeting and statement at 2pm.

Consensus estimates for Q2 GDP are between 3% to 3.2% following Q1’s dismal -2.9% contraction. Meanwhile, ADP forecasts between 215k and 225k jobs were added in July (down from June’s 281k). Although the Fed’s statement later in the day is not expected to move markets one way or the other, any details about the Fed’s direction going forward should be noted.

Finishing up the week is the all-important July Employment report at 8:30am, which is expected to show the addition of between 220k and 250k jobs (down from June’s 288k). Also look for data on personal spending and income, as well as the ISM manufacturing reading for July at 10am. Consensus calls for a reading of 56.0 (an increase from June’s 55.3 reading).

Lastly, the earnings barrage continues as more than 140 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week. Some of these include big names such as Exxon Mobil and BP, as well as P&G, Colgate-Palmolive, Kraft, Merck, Pfizer, LinkedIn and Tesla. Investors will also be focused on the continued geopolitical risks in Israel and the Ukraine, specifically.

Some view this week as the last major news week of the summer (economic-wise), so be prepared for major market movements one way or the other, with the potential for increased volatility.